What Is the Job Market Going To Do?

There are many "experts" (read journalists looking to sell a story) who are predicting the Job Market has finally turned around.  They base this on the fact that November and December saw more jobs created than eliminated by employers.   The national Unemployment Rate is now 9.4% of the workforce.

While this is good news, it does not tell the entire story.  What you too often do not hear is that we need to see job growth at a rate of 300,000 new jobs a month in order to start significantly reducing the unemployment rate.  That is right, 100,000 new jobs, like we saw in November and December, just will not cut it. 

 Another problem I have with the pundits announcing victory over unemployment is we do not have enough data to know really!  As any good economist, statistician, or engineering student will tell you it takes at least three consecutive data points (three months of positive job growth numbers) to confirm that a trend has started.  Right now, all we have are two, November and December, and they are not big enough to dent seriously the national unemployment rates.

What do we need to do and where is the Job Market going? 

We need to have patience for another month or two before celebrating a turnaround in the job market.  I would say there are some positive early signs, but the bottom could fall out tomorrow.  January may be in the negative column.  So it is really too early to predict just where the job market is headed.  Stay calm.   What we do know, is that IF we are seeing a turnaround trend, we need it to strengthen, and quickly. 

Literally millions of unemployed Americans weekly draw unemployment insurance (UI) benefits.  The various states pay those benefits with borrowed money. That is right; the US Treasury has issued billions in T-Bills and bonds in order to meet the demand for cash flow to fund government, including the UI program.   That costs the American taxpayer and the American economy significantly in interest paid.   It also makes credit hard to get for those who do have a job and want to grow new jobs, buy a house, a car, or pay for a college education.

It is time for the savvy job hunter to stay the course. Work your network daily.  Keep making appointments for Informational Interviews.  Never eat lunch alone.  Keep asking your contacts for referrals and following up on them right away.  While you are at it do not neglect to spend about 90 minutes a day cruising the Internet and newspapers looking for job postings and responding to them. 

You also can meet with me, this Saturday, January 15, at 9:30 AM in the Panera Bread Community Room at 71^st Street and Garnet Road.  If any of the advice I mentioned in the last paragraph does not ring a bell with you, or you question the ratio of time I recommend for searching the paper and Internet, then I will be happy to share with you where those statistics came from.