What's the forecast in Tulsa?

Well, in December there were some rosy forecasts about first quarter 2011 hiring in Tulsa.  The linked article states the quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey projects hiring at an increased pace, double that of the corresponding quarter of 2010.  Of course, the devil is in the details.

When you look at the statistics enclosed in the article you see that a doubling of hiring activity is projected (from a 6% to 12% net growth).   Unfortunately that is not a 6% to 12% growth in the job market.  It reflects an net increase of 6% to 12% of Tulsa MSA employers who say they plan to increase staffing during the quarter.  That means a large proportion of the employers either have not plans for hiring, or may even be looking to still reduce their workforces.  Not quite the bright picture the headline wants to paint.

So, what's a job hunter to do?  Now more than ever, you must differentiate yourself from the crowd.  Some call this "personal branding" others marching to a different drummer.  Regardless of what you call it, it means you have to make it clear to those you come into contact with that you are unique among the crowd, and have a higher than average value to add to their company or organization.  

In order to accomplish this, you must have identified and believe in those factors that make you stand out.  To do this I recommend a self assessment.  That is an honest and in depth look at your Skills, Abilities, Values and Interests (SAVI) and how they make you he unique package you are.

A few hours spent on this Self Assessment process will pay big dividends in the marketplace.  You will be clear and focused upon your objective(s), you unique value that you offer, and how it has benefited past employers as an example of how it can benefit a new employer.

Because, the forecast for the Tulsa Job Market is improving.  Twice a many employers are looking to add to their workforces in January, February and March this year, as were a year ago.  While that might not be a volume like we saw in 2004-2007, it still means more opportunities to make that sale and solidify the value of your personal brand.

What Is the Job Market Going To Do?

There are many "experts" (read journalists looking to sell a story) who are predicting the Job Market has finally turned around.  They base this on the fact that November and December saw more jobs created than eliminated by employers.   The national Unemployment Rate is now 9.4% of the workforce.

While this is good news, it does not tell the entire story.  What you too often do not hear is that we need to see job growth at a rate of 300,000 new jobs a month in order to start significantly reducing the unemployment rate.  That is right, 100,000 new jobs, like we saw in November and December, just will not cut it. 

 Another problem I have with the pundits announcing victory over unemployment is we do not have enough data to know really!  As any good economist, statistician, or engineering student will tell you it takes at least three consecutive data points (three months of positive job growth numbers) to confirm that a trend has started.  Right now, all we have are two, November and December, and they are not big enough to dent seriously the national unemployment rates.

What do we need to do and where is the Job Market going? 

We need to have patience for another month or two before celebrating a turnaround in the job market.  I would say there are some positive early signs, but the bottom could fall out tomorrow.  January may be in the negative column.  So it is really too early to predict just where the job market is headed.  Stay calm.   What we do know, is that IF we are seeing a turnaround trend, we need it to strengthen, and quickly. 

Literally millions of unemployed Americans weekly draw unemployment insurance (UI) benefits.  The various states pay those benefits with borrowed money. That is right; the US Treasury has issued billions in T-Bills and bonds in order to meet the demand for cash flow to fund government, including the UI program.   That costs the American taxpayer and the American economy significantly in interest paid.   It also makes credit hard to get for those who do have a job and want to grow new jobs, buy a house, a car, or pay for a college education.

It is time for the savvy job hunter to stay the course. Work your network daily.  Keep making appointments for Informational Interviews.  Never eat lunch alone.  Keep asking your contacts for referrals and following up on them right away.  While you are at it do not neglect to spend about 90 minutes a day cruising the Internet and newspapers looking for job postings and responding to them. 

You also can meet with me, this Saturday, January 15, at 9:30 AM in the Panera Bread Community Room at 71^st Street and Garnet Road.  If any of the advice I mentioned in the last paragraph does not ring a bell with you, or you question the ratio of time I recommend for searching the paper and Internet, then I will be happy to share with you where those statistics came from.

A New Year-A Fresh Start

So, 2010 is officially in the history books.  Effective today, you have a new year, and a fresh start on your job search.  What are you going to do to make the most of this opportunity?

Hopefully you will not let the prospect of extended Unemployment benefits lull you into inactivity.  Like those benefits you already may have drawn these new benefits will eventually run out.  Unless you aggressively pursue your job search, you very well could still be unemployed when the end arrives.  Make sure you do not get caught short due to a lack of activity in the job market.

Now is the time to take a hard look at your resume and ask some tough questions.  Does my resume "sell me" or does it sell me short?  If I were hiring, and reviewed my resume would I hire me?  Can a prospective employer tell what I have accomplished in my work life, or just where I have worked?  Based upon this resume, why should any employer hire me?  What is there in my resume that might sabotage my candidacy?

Hopefully the answers you come to are positive.  Unfortunately for far to many of us, the answers will be no and "sells me short."  For the next week I will share with you seven tips to strengthen your resume and improve your chances of getting a job offer.

COFFEE AND JOB TALK NEWS - Effective Saturday, January 15, 2011, CO FEE AND JOB TALK will start meeting in the Community Room  of the Panera Bread at 71st and Garnett Road in Tulsa.  We have met at this location before, however, we have taken our chances on table space and privacy.

Beginning January 15 at 9:30 AM sharp, we will meet in the community room for one hour, until 10:30 AM.  Please come early if you wish to purchase a drink, or grab a bite to eat, as we will begin and end on-time based on our use agreement with Panera Bread.  Come prepared to be encouraged and to be an encouragement to others!

Remember, Saturday, January 15 at 9:30 AM-Panera Bread Community Room - we'll see your there!